The Bulletin for Nuclear Scientists regrets that the nuclear clock has edged even closer to the brink of midnight. With the recent nuclear detonations by Pakistan and Brazil, the recent acquisition of cruise missile technology by Bolivian drug lords, and the recent unusual American and Soviet activities on the ground and in space, it appears that the world has moved perilously towards Armageddon. Consequently, the Bulletin for Nuclear Scientists has moved the clock one minute along, to two minutes to midnight.

This demonstrates an ominous acceleration of the clock, continuing a trend started in 1974.

This is the closest the clock has been to oblivion since it was first used as a sign of the world situation in 1949. On October 31, 1952, the United States advanced the technology of destruction when it detonated the first hydrogen bomb. The Pacific island of Elugelab simply vanished, leaving a crater 160 feet deep and more than a mile wide. Nine months later, the Soviets matched the stakes, surprising many.

"Only a few more swings of the pendulum, and, from Moscow to Chicago, atomic explosions will strike midnight for Western civilization." In 1953, the hands of the clock were set to two minutes away from doom. They have not been so close until now. We peer into the abyss again.

Fear and Paranoia

The clock, seemingly ingrained into the Western consciousness, reflects major trends. It does not move frequently. For example, the clock did not move during those frightening days of October 1962. Fortunately for all of us, saner heads prevailed. We did not lurch towards midnight.

Thus, from 1960 through 1972, the clock tended to move away from the brink. The Partial Test Ban Treaty was one reason. The fear of mutual annihilation was another.

There was a setback in the late sixties, as nationalism flourished. Wars between India and Pakistan, Egypt and Israel, and other smaller states raised the stakes. America found itself mired in Viet Nam. (Rumors persist that President Nixon told Ambassador Kissinger to convince the Vietnamese that he [Nixon] was crazy enough to use nuclear weapons in the conflict.) The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) seemed to be the first step to return to sanity.

It was not to last.

With the development of MIRVs - Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles - both the Americans and the Soviets upped the ante. One missile could launch several warheads. Each warhead could strike radically different targets. An enemy with MIRVs who struck first had an advantage. One missile with many warheads could strike, eliminating many of the other's missiles still in the silo. The side that struck first could save missiles in reserve, to destroy that which remained. Instead of mutual terror, the game had switched to "use 'em or lose 'em". Those in possession of the nuclear trigger might have mere minutes to make a decision. Glitches in the warning systems, unexpected flights of migratory birds, and other minor malfunctions became possible triggers for doomsday.

The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) proved an optimistic illusion. There were more weapons than ever. MIRVed weapons were everywhere. Also serious was a "spreading trend towards irrationality in the national and international conduct of many states, of peoples aspiring to nationhood, and dissident minorities (down to minorities comprising only a few individuals) within nations. Each one of us can find many examples of this trend towards a return to the social and political behavior of the Middle Ages; the provisional branch of the Irish Republican Army or the Italian Red Brigade; the religious fanaticism now in control in Iran and other parts of the Islamic world; the systematic dismemberment of Lebanon, the outstanding modern example of a secular democratic state; the genocidal orgy in Cambodia, demonstrating the contemporary possibility that innocent people may, without choice, end up both red and dead while the rest of the world impotently stands by."

Thinking the Unthinkable

Ronald Reagan was elected President. The Russians "flouted" the SALT provisions. SALT II, the follow on treaty, was "fatally flawed." The United States introduced the new MX missile. The Russians had their new SS-20. Neither side was willing to pledge that they wouldn't launch a first strike. Both sides officially declared, in 1980, that nuclear war was 'thinkable'. The leadership of both sides had deluded themselves into the idea that a nuclear war could remain contained, or that it could be "won". It was an insanity that scared the world.

The clock moved three minutes closer to midnight, set at four minutes from destruction.

President Reagan seemed to enjoy raising the stakes. In his very first presidential news conference, he said that Soviet leaders "reserve unto themselves the right to commit any crime, to lie, to cheat." These were strong and reckless words in a combustible environment. Yet, President Reagan refused to back down. Two years later, he uttered the famous comment referring to the Soviet Union as the "Evil Empire."

Then he announced his plan for "Star Wars" - the Strategic Defense Initiative. This plan would violate the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Furthermore, critics (and some supporters) very quickly suggested that the defense system could not guarantee 100% protection in case of an all-out attack.

Thus, as the arms race escalated and meaningful talks withered, the clock was moved again, a minute closer to midnight.

A Brief Hope Fades

It was hoped that the madness of deployment of the missiles in Germany (notably the Pershing II and SS-20s) that reduced flight times to five to ten minutes would make defense planners rethink their efforts. Despite huge protests by the populace (250,000 in Bonn, 400,000 in Amsterdam), officials would not be swayed. Even when a popular American television program called The Day After used these weapons as a trigger for its fictional war, plans did not change.

Troubled by plans and upheavals at home, President Reagan and President Gorbachev failed to make progress on the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) that might have lessened the number of these weapons. It was an opportunity that was missed. (See note)

Old and new Players in the Same Old Game

So, this year finds the Americans and the Soviets under pressure at home and abroad. There have been close encounters in orbit, which, on the surface, appear to be a positive sign. Still, there are rumors that there may be more to this than meets the eye.

Rumors, however, do not cause the clock to move.

The instability in the Communist bloc, caused by pressures and demands from groups like Solidarity, push the Soviets towards action. Similar pressures have led, in the past, to such events as the creation of the Berlin Wall, or the military pacification of Czechoslovakia. It is the potential for crisis-causing events such as these that pushes the clock towards midnight.

The addition of Pakistan to the nuclear club was predicted by many. This worrisome proliferation raises the tension in an already-tense part of the world. There is a real possibility of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Thus, there is a new source for concern.

The addition of Brazil to the nuclear nations was more of a surprise. There is little apparent military reason for Brazil to have or need such weaponry; their efforts, therefore, are reason for concern. Adding to this is the power and reach of the drug lords of South America. The Calderone clan has already demonstrated their reach by the acquisition of a cruise missile. Should they manage to take this technology and graft it to an acquired bomb, the threat of nuclear terrorism becomes very real.

Terrorists continue to pose a growing threat. The previously unremarkable Mannheim Mayhem Squad demonstrated this with their recent assault on American and Soviet arms negotiators. It is difficult enough for the superpowers to come to some form of agreement without disturbance. The addition of a wild card into the deck. That they could derail important efforts, efforts needed to bring sanity back to the world, is chilling.

For all of these reasons, we have chosen to advance the clock another minute. We are now two minutes to midnight - and our prospects look bleak.